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Results Review

11.10.22

After exams were sat for the first time in three years, L-J Andrew investigates the effect on this year's GCSE results

Students this year faced a prospect that hasn’t been heard of over the last few years; having results graded entirely based on grade predictions. The pandemic changed education across the country, with home schooling taking over and all exams being cancelled. The 2019, 2020 and 2021 student cohort were given grades decided by the by ‘calculated grades’, when the exam regulator, Ofqual, standardised teachers’ predicted grades according to the centre historical performance, although a backlash ensued. As lower achieving students tend to be overpredicted whilst, higher achieving students tend to be more accurately predicted and “outlier” students, those who perform better in exams specifically, and disadvantaged students, thought to be disproportionately affected by the standardisation process.

The controversy surrounding the unique results calculation led to some shared anxiety among this year’s crop of students, as GCSE student, Joseph McGillivray, describes: “The whole process was quite unnerving to be honest. I felt disadvantaged, as if there was a heavy weight on all of our shoulders as we were the first to sit them again.”

Ofqual signalled over a year ago their ambition for results to come back in line with standards in 2019 by 2023 and have stated that this year’s results should not be compared to2020 or 2021, because of the different methods of assessment. Despite students’ trepidations, overall GCSE results have comeback higher than in 2019. Outcomes at grade 7 and above are26.0% compared with 20.6% in 2019, and outcomes at grade4 and above are 73.0% compared with 67.0% in 2019. Dr Jo Saxton, Chief Regulator at Ofqual, said: “Students that have received their GCSE results this year can be so proud of their achievements – a testament to their hard work and resilience over the past 2 years. I know, from visiting schools and colleges across England since September, that students and teachers welcome the return of exams and formal assessments. Students told me that they wanted the chance to prove themselves in this tried and tested way.”

In this latest batch of results, London schools have stretched their lead over the rest of the country, outperforming other regions by a significant margin. Since 2019, the percentage of entries awarded grade 9-7 in the capital has increased by almost 7% compared to between 4 and 5% in most regions. It is also worth noting that attainment on this measure increased by 6% in the northeast despite this region having the highest rates of absence for this cohort over the last two years. This was a similar increase to the southeast, which had the second highest rate of absence, after the southwest for this year’s cohort.

The data also reveals a large fall in top grades at independent schools. The percentage of entries at independent schools awarded grades 9-7 in England increased by 14%between 2019 and 2021. The arrangements for awarding GCSEs and A levels in 2020 and 2021, also saw the gap in attainment between independent schools and state schools widen. However, the return to exams has seen this gap close. The difference in entries grade A*-A between independent schools and state selective schools has returned to around 8%.

Despite the range of results, all types of schools and colleges are higher than in 2019 at grade 7 and above. The extent to which outcomes have changed relative to 2019 is likely, in part, to reflect longstanding differences in the pattern of results. This Summer's results also reflected the differential impact of the pandemic. However, this might mean that these students taking these subjects next year might face tougher grading than those years if Ofqual continues with its plan to bring 2023grades in line with 2019.

Despite the comparisons and fear for the future, the return to exams has overall been a success. Dr Jo Saxton, Chief Regulator, concludes: “With this year’s GCSE results coming in higher overall than those of 2019, and – as we have always said– lower than in 2021, when there was a different method of assessment, it makes sense to compare this year’s results with those of 2019 when exams were last sat. I felt strongly that it would not have been right to go straight back to pre-pandemic grading in one go but accept that we do need to continue to take steps back to normality. These results overall, coming as they do broadly midway between 2021 and 2019, represent a staging post on that journey.”

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