Stamp Duty Rework Offers Mixed Blessings

Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget presents a mixed blessing offering, putting a strong new emphasis on economic growth, while whisking up an element of fear amongst us.

The new policies – which include a reduction in income tax, reversing plans for tax-rises and important changes to stamp duty thresholds – represent something of a gamble for the new chancellor.

Intended to kickstart a new era of economic growth, working towards an annual target of +2.5%, they entail a huge amount of borrowing, and many industry bodies doubt that the government can balance the books only by stimulating economic growth. Economists have suggested that the spending plans are “unsustainable” and that they must eventually be followed by higher taxes or greatly reduced government spending – and thus, a reduction in public services.

Since the announcement, the value of sterling has fallen sharply, suggesting that international markets and investors remain unconvinced. The Government’s decision to refuse to publish an accompanying impact statement from the Office for Budget Responsibility hasn’t done much to restore faith either.

Perhaps the single most important news to come out of the chancellor’s statement was his decision to change stamp duty thresholds with immediate effect. The new thresholds, for England and Northern Ireland, are as follows:

• £250,000 for most residential transactions (up from £125,00)
• £425,000 for first time-buyer transactions (up from £300,00)
• £625,000 – the value of the property on which first-time-buyers can claim stamp duty relief (up from £500,000)

Different rates apply in Scotland (where transactions are subject to the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax), and in Wales (the Land Transaction Tax).

The stamp duty holiday introduced during the Covid pandemic prompted a period of frenetic market activity, during which transaction volumes and average values rose quickly. That was just a temporary suspension, but the new changes are permanent. Whether that permanence is a good thing for investors is a crystal ball conundrum; the fact that the ‘holiday’ was temporary will have added a sense of urgency to previous transactions, encouraging faster completions and a large spike in activity. When buyers know that the change is permanent, they may feel less anxious about completing quickly.

Nevertheless, anything that reduces the total cost of a property transaction is likely to be welcomed by house-buyers, and it will leave them with more to spend on their purchases (rather than having to budget for the extra tax payment.) Consequently, it could have a similar effect to the previous stamp duty holiday – i.e., it could fuel faster house price growth.

It should also be noted that some of the Government’s other measures will also increase or at least help to preserve people’s spending power. The U-turn on National Insurance payments will help more people to retain more of their earnings, and this should have important consequences. First, tenants with more left in their wallets will be better able to pay rents – so there should be less risk of arrears – and, by the same token, they should be better able to keep paying them as inflation forces average rental values to rise.

Second, much the same principle should apply to prospective buyers. Having more to spend, their collective demand for homes should tend to bid up average values, so investors may also see stronger-than-expected capital growth in the coming months.

Current conditions are by no means ideal. Slow growth and high inflation are never welcome but in the longer term, conditions in the property market are likely to improve. Before the measures were announced, many households were facing much higher – likely unmanageable – costs. Now, there is more support available, incomes should be less stretched and demand for property should be less hard-hit by the downturn. On top of that, the stamp duty changes should support faster house price growth and greater market activity, so prospects for capital appreciation could grow steadily better.