Brexit Delivering Mixed Forecast for Property Investment


The decision to leave the European Union has subdued property prices but even if the slower levels of recent months continue values would still rise by over 50% in the next decade, new research shows.

The analysis shows that while across the UK the average house price has risen on average by just 0.37% a month since the referendum vote in June 2016 compared to 0.67% a month on average between June 2015 and 2016.

But the research from online estate agent eMoov also points out that if values continue rising at 0.37% a month, the average UK house prices would still reach £347,757 over the next decade, an increase of 56%.

Using data from the Land Registry, the firm applied the rate of growth to the current average house price on a monthly basis up until 2027 to obtain the new average house price. It then calculated the total percentage difference between the current and future average house price in order to rank each city based on the highest total growth rate.

On this basis the analysis shows that London has seen a real slowdown in price growth since Brexit and so although the capital would still be one of the most expensive cities in the UK, along with Oxford, it would have seen one of the lowest percentage increases in value.

Nottingham is top in terms of monthly prices growth since Brexit, up 0.8% a month on average meaning the average house price would increase 160% from the current £133,215 to £346,592 by 2027.

Glasgow has seen prices increase by 0.7% a month since June of last year, the second highest across the UK. If this monthly growth continues the Scottish city will see prices hit £285,487 by 2027, a jump of 131%.

Oxford ties with fourth place Cardiff with an average monthly increase of 0.64% in the last year. As a result, the city would see the current average price of £413,240 rise £115% to £888,542 by 2027 and the same rise would see prices in Cardiff reach £427,799 by 2027.

Next is Edinburgh which has seen prices increase by a monthly average of 0.63% since June 2016. The same slower rate of growth over the next decade would still see prices exceed half a million to reach £506,627 by 2027, an increase of 112%.

Even cities that have seen some of the smallest monthly price growth since Brexit would still see growth. Newcastle, where prices are up just 0.07% on average each month since June 2016 would see the current average of £156,753 rise £13,731 to £170,485 in the next 10 years.

Norwich has the second lowest rate of monthly growth at 0.12% since Brexit. But this is still enough to see a 15% rise to £222,749 over the next decade from the current average of £192,892.

‘With latest industry figures indicating an end to the post-Brexit market slowdown that has seemingly plagued the market over the last 18 months, many UK home owners will be breathing a sigh of relief, despite having still enjoyed a notable annual increase in their property’s value,’ said Russell Quirk, chief executive officer of eMoov.

‘Although these recent slower rates of price growth are unlikely to persist going forward, and we are by no means predicting they will, this research demonstrates that the outlook would still be rather positive and far from the apocalyptic prophecy’s many have talked the market down with since the Brexit vote,’ he added.

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